Search results for "Split-ticket voting"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
ei.Datasets: Real Data Sets for Assessing Ecological Inference Algorithms
2021
Ecological inference models aim to infer individual-level relationships using aggregate data. They are routinely used to estimate voter transitions between elections, disclose split-ticket voting behaviors, or infer racial voting patterns in U.S. elections. A large number of procedures have been proposed in the literature to solve these problems; therefore, an assessment and comparison of them are overdue. The secret ballot however makes this a difficult endeavor since real individual data are usually not accessible. The most recent work on ecological inference has assessed methods using a very small number of data sets with ground truth, combined with artificial, simulated data. This arti…
Split-ticket voting in German Federal elections, 1953–90: an example of sophisticated balloting?
1999
Abstract Though the German electoral system has provided the opportunity of split-ticket voting since 1953, until now there has only been mere speculation concerning the rationality of ticket-splitting. In this paper we examine the rationality thesis empirically, using data provided by the official representative electoral statistics of the Federal Republic. Modifying the Downsian notion of rational voting, rational ticket-splitting is defined in terms of coalition building and of voters' expectations of the electoral success of candidates and parties. Applying this conceptual framework, it will be shown that the combinations of first and second votes actually chosen by a majority of the Ge…
Geolocation and voting: Candidate–voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 UK general election in England
2012
The effect of geographical distance between candidate and voter on vote-likelihood in the UK is essentially untested. In systems where constituency representatives vie for local inhabitants' support in elections, candidates living closer to a voter would be expected to have a greater probability of receiving that individual's support, other things being equal. In this paper, we present a first test of this concept using constituency data (specifically, notice of poll address data) from the British General Election of 2010 and the British Election Survey, together with geographical data from Ordnance Survey and Royal Mail, to test the hypothesis that candidate distance matters in voters' cho…
The importance of being first : Effects of candidates’ list positions in the 2003 Bavarian state election
2006
Abstract Normative theories of democracy do not pay much attention to technicalities of voting, implicitly assuming that these do not influence voting behaviour and election outcomes significantly. However, it is not clear whether this is actually the case. In this article we analyse whether one such technical detail matters for voting behaviour: the ballot position. Based on previous research in the field, we discuss ballot position effects and deduce hypotheses concerning list position effects in the 2003 Bavarian state election. In the empirical analysis, it turns out that ballot positions had a considerable influence on voting behaviour in this election, especially, the top position on …
Social Choice in the Real World II: Cyclical Preferences and Strategic Voting in the Finnish Presidential Elections
1997
The empirical relevance of the theoretical results of social choice theory is still unclear. The most radical thesis, put forth by William Riker, is that politics is a highly unstable process, characterized by preference cycles and strategic voting. This article - a continuation of an earlier article published in this journal - examines the Finnish presidential election in 1925, 1931, 1937 and 1982. The conclusion is that preference cycle and strategic voting have had a significant impact in the discussed cases. The relevancy of the social choice approach and its relation to historical research are discussed.
Improving Estimates Accuracy of Voter Transitions. Two New Algorithms for Ecological Inference Based on Linear Programming
2022
The estimation of RxC ecological inference contingency tables from aggregate data is one of the most salient and challenging problems in the field of quantitative social sciences, with major solutions proposed from both the ecological regression and the mathematical programming frameworks. In recent decades, there has been a drive to find solutions stemming from the former, with the latter being less active. From the mathematical programming framework, this paper suggests a new direction for tackling this problem. For the first time in the literature, a procedure based on linear programming is proposed to attain estimates of local contingency tables. Based on this and the homogeneity hypot…
INVESTIGATION OF ELECTION RESULTS, NUMBERS OF PARTY MEMBERS, AND OPINION POLLS IN GERMANY
2008
Our publication focuses on two different but related topics in politics: in the first part of this publication, we investigate the influence of election results in the elections for the parliaments of the German states and for the German Diet (federal parliament) on the member numbers of the largest parties in the various states. In the second part of this publication, we consider the correlations between opinion polls and election results and focus on the question whether real election results can be predicted by opinion polls.